BlockBeats News, March 8th, “BTC OG Whale Insider” agent Garrett Jin posted on Platform X, stating that historically there is a clear correlation between an oil supply gap and price surge: in 1973, about a 7% supply gap drove a price surge of about 300%; in 1979, about a 5% gap led to a 150% surge; in 1990, about a 6% gap resulted in a 130% surge.
Currently, the potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 15%, much higher than historical cases. Most current institutional models assume that this shock will last only “a few days to a few weeks,” with hardly any models anticipating a shock that could last for several months. In reality, once market consensus on the duration is shattered, more long positions may be forced into the market, further driving up oil prices.
