BlockBeats News, April 5th, “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin published a lengthy article titled “Oil Is War,” pointing out that oil is not a byproduct of the US-Iran war but the core driver of the war itself. All other economic and financial variables (stock market, bonds, cryptocurrency, Fed policy, food prices, etc.) are downstream results of the oil price. Whoever can accurately judge the oil trend can understand the direction of the entire market.
Garrett Jin believes that the US-Iran war has exceeded the expectation of “surgical airstrikes” and has evolved into a prolonged war of attrition. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a structural rise in oil prices, rather than a temporary spike. The war has escalated into a protracted conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for over five weeks, US ground troops are gathering, with no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not to win but to make the war costly enough to force Washington to seek an exit.
The most likely scenario is to enter a prolonged war of attrition, which is in line with US interests—forcing global buyers to turn to North American energy while high oil prices stimulate domestic US production. The market has already priced in the war but has not yet priced in the war’s duration. Every oil price pullback is a buying opportunity. As US ground troops are deployed and unable to achieve a quick victory, the oil price will transmit to interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of this month is 18%, by the end of May is 34%, and by the end of June is 46%.
