BlockBeats News, October 10th: On Polymarket and other prediction markets, traders are increasingly believing that the U.S. government shutdown will continue until the end of October or even longer. According to the implied probability from trading prices on Polymarket, the current likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown lasting for more than 30 days is 37%, up from 15% at the beginning of the shutdown on October 1st. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history occurred during Trump’s first term, from December 2018 to January 2019, lasting 34 days. On another prediction platform, Kalshi, the probability of the government shutdown lasting for more than 30 days is currently 39%, with traders on that platform on average expecting this shutdown to last for 24.7 days. (Jinshi)
