BlockBeats News, October 13th, Whale Garrett Jin, who previously sold off more than $4.23 billion worth of BTC in a high-profile manner and switched to ETH, elaborated on his bearish view before the 10/11 crash:
· From a technical analysis perspective, at that time, U.S. tech stocks, A-share tech stocks, and major cryptocurrencies all showed overbought signals, such as MACD divergence;
· Cryptocurrencies and U.S. tech stocks have historically exhibited a high positive correlation, which led us to believe that risk would shift between the two. Over the past week, we observed a change in the structure of the U.S. stock market, shifting from risk-on to risk-off trading. The cryptocurrency market has also exhibited a similar pattern;
· Since September 26th, trade tensions have escalated, but due to the bullish market sentiment, investors largely ignored this tension. The situation intensified just before the stock market crash last Friday;
· Both A-shares and the U.S. stock market had entered a risk-off mode before the 10/11 crash. We cannot predict when President Trump will take retaliatory measures, but our internal quant system has already issued a risk warning;
· The market’s decline is not only caused by macro factors but also by internal structural instability: both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market have recently been driven by high-leverage long positions, creating fertile ground for a deleveraging crisis similar to the 2015 A-share crash and the March 2020 U.S. stock market crash. Unlike stocks, most cryptocurrencies lack an intrinsic value anchor, with their driving force coming more from investor sentiment — greed and fear. Therefore, trading platforms offering 5x to 100x aggressive leverage to retail investors for such volatile assets could trigger a liquidity crisis, whether prices rise or fall;
Garrett Jin stated earlier today that he has no relation to the Trump family, there was no insider trading in the switch, and the fund does not belong to him but rather to clients.
