BlockBeats News, October 17, on-chain analyst Murphy released data showing that whale wallets holding at least 100 BTC or more now collectively hold 12.17 million BTC, accounting for 61% of the total circulating supply. The whale holding amount at the peak of the 2021 bull market is similar to the current level, at around 10 million BTC, while it was around 10 million BTC at the peak of the 2017 bull market. In this cycle, many old OG players have passed their chips to new institutions, transforming the market participation structure. However, whether whales’ sentiment remains consistently optimistic or fearful will still determine the transition of the BTC bull-and-bear cycle.
From 2017 to 2018, after the BTC price touched $19,587 and began to pull back, whales were experiencing daily losses of around $1 billion. The continuous, large-scale, and indiscriminate selling left no room for the market to breathe, leading to an 80% bear market lasting for a year.
From 2021 to 2022, the scale of daily realized losses has increased by an order of magnitude. On May 19, whales suffered a daily realized loss of $3 billion, and during the Luna flash crash, a terrifying volume of $4 billion in a single day. The previous cycle’s continuous occurrence of daily realized losses exceeding $20 billion basically signaled the end of the bull market cycle.
In this cycle, on August 5, 2024, there was a single day of realized losses of $2 billion, the most severe panic sell-off so far in this cycle. In February and April 2025, affected by Trump’s resumption of the tariff war, there were single-day losses of $1.1 billion and $800 million, which were much smaller than in August 2024. During the recent October 11th crash, BTC whales displayed unusual calm and composure, with a daily realized loss of only $400 million. Whale sentiment and behavior are becoming more stable, and the previous “80% decline lasting for a year” bear market may not occur again.
