BlockBeats News, November 24th. HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe pointed out that this week the U.S. market presented a feature of “data-intensive landing” before the holiday, with multiple core economic indicators scheduled to be released from Monday to Wednesday. High-frequency employment data (especially initial jobless claims on Wednesday) will be a key factor influencing risk appetite. The crypto market is still digesting the adjustment since October, with Bitcoin falling back about 30% from its high point, ETFs experiencing continuous net outflows, and Coinbase premium weakening, while overall sentiment remains low. Although there is support for the mid-term outlook with expectations of “stop tapering + rate cut in advance,” the current stage is closer to a rebalancing before liquidity transition, and institutional positions are mainly reducing and hedging.
Derivative pricing reflects a defensive stance in the market: CME BTC futures basis has fallen to below 4%, with the term structure trending flat; short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-dated contracts; the 25-delta skew is negative for all terms; IV rises synchronously with the price decline.
Overall, the downward phase may be nearing its end, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If consumer and employment data weaken moderately this week, the market may see a technical rebound; if the data lean strong and suppress rate cut expectations, a short-term pullback may still be triggered in the context of weak holiday liquidity. Analysis believes that the area around $80,000 is a key observation range for medium to long-term allocation demand.
