BlockBeats News, December 9th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, yesterday, unverified images on Cambodian Telegram and Facebook showed a Thai F-16 fighter jet conducting an airstrike on a Cambodian target. Subsequently, the Thai military confirmed that after a border conflict resulted in the death of a Thai soldier, Thailand took “retaliatory strikes.” This news directly caused the probability on the prediction market “Will Thailand attack Cambodia before December 31st?” to skyrocket from 28% to 100% within a 2-hour period yesterday morning between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m., and the market settled as “Yes.”
Due to rapid escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Polymarket launched a market one hour ago asking “Will Thailand attack Cambodia on December 9th?” This market features daily settlements, but had very low initial trading volume. Shortly after the market was launched, new images and reports surfaced online: Bangkok Post posted on social media that the Royal Thai Army confirmed an F-16 fighter jet had destroyed a casino used by Cambodia as a drone control center, and the air force is currently targeting a rocket base threatening a Thai community. Influenced by this news, the option for December 9th surged from 37% to the current 62% within an hour. Due to low trading volume, this market has not yet settled.
