BlockBeats News, December 15, according to PolyBeats monitoring. Currently, the probability of no change in the interest rate for the Fed’s January meeting is as high as 78%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 21%. Market consensus is clear: despite some easing in inflation, the Fed usually waits for the economy to stabilize for a period of time before taking action, making it unlikely for a major pivot at the beginning of the year.
However, the actions of the account thiswaysir are completely contrary: he made a contrarian bet of $30,000 that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in January, and he even holds a “lottery position” of 100,000 units for a 50 basis point rate cut.
This is not the first time he has bet against market consensus. In mid-November, when mainstream market sentiment believed that an economic recession and a drop in inflation would force the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points (with the probability peaking at 80%), thiswaysir contrarily bought nearly $15,000 at an average price of 32c, accurately betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This trade ultimately made him a profit of nearly $25,000. This is also his only historical trade.
If thiswaysir’s interpretation of the market is correct once again, the initial $15,000 he invested will compound to $150,000 by January.
