According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the “Best AI by the End of 2025” market on the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of Google’s Gemini winning has risen to 94%, OpenAI’s ChatGPT under a 5% winning probability, and xAI’s Grok under a 1% winning probability. The trading volume of this prediction market has reached $14.71 million. At the beginning of this year, Gemini had a winning probability of 30%, ChatGPT had a winning probability of 41%, and Grok had a winning probability of 14%. This prediction market will settle based on LM Arena leaderboard data.
Furthermore, the new model release date of Google’s Gemini is approaching, suspected to be locked in by Google insider NCW once again for today (December 17). NCW previously accurately locked in the release date of Gemini 3.0 Flash to the second half of December, successfully profiting nearly $4000. All four historical trades of this individual were related to the release date speculation of Gemini products. NCW recently set December 17 as the release date of Gemini 3.0 Flash, while buying “No” on the 16th and “Yes” on the 17th at an average price of 80c and 78c, respectively. Both positions are currently in floating profits.
