BlockBeats News, December 17th, Research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing a saturation stage after years of distribution, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.
K33’s research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years has been continuously decreasing, with about 1.6 million BTC being reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at approximately $138 billion at the current price, reflecting continued on-chain selling by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has significantly exceeded what can be explained by technical migrations or structural adjustments, demonstrating substantial distribution behavior.
The report stated that 2024 and 2025 became the second and third-highest years in Bitcoin history in terms of the scale of long-term supply recirculation, second only to 2017. In contrast to the distribution cycles in that year, which were predominantly driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, this round of selling is more of a deep liquidity realization gain brought by long-term holders directly to the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and corporate financial needs.
Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually lighten. Lunde stated that about 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated in the past two years, and the on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation, with the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years likely to end the current downtrend by 2026 and be higher than the current level of about 12.16 million BTC. In addition, K33 also pointed out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effects that may occur at quarter-end and the beginning of a new quarter. Given that Bitcoin significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios may see a reallocation at the end of the year and the beginning of next year, potentially bringing in phased fund inflows to the market.
