BlockBeats News, December 23rd, Predictive market Kalshi announced the launch of Kalshi Research. Kalshi Research will open Kalshi’s internal data to researchers for studying topics related to research and predictive markets. The first research report has been released: Kalshi Outperforms Wall Street Consensus Expectations in Inflation Prediction.
As previously reported, the report points out that Kalshi found, through comparing its platform’s inflation predictions with Wall Street consensus expectations, that market-based traders, over a 25-month observation period, demonstrated higher prediction accuracy than traditional economists and analysts, with this advantage being particularly pronounced during economic fluctuations. Specifically, the research found that from February 2023 to mid-2025, the predictive market’s estimates of the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had an average error rate 40% lower than the consensus prediction. When actual data deviated significantly from expectations, the predictive market’s advantage became even more prominent, with its accuracy exceeding the consensus expectation by up to 67%.
