BlockBeats News, March 14, “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted a long article analyzing the continued closure of the Hormuz Strait and its global impact. He pointed out that Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, and India have different levels of resilience, and the crisis will erupt after the oil shortage reaches a threshold.
Japan is the major economy most severely structurally exposed globally, with about 95% of its oil coming from the Middle East, with about 70% directly transported through the Hormuz Strait. Japan’s nominal strategic oil reserve supply is for 254 days, but Japan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) is only available for about three weeks, and LNG accounts for 40% of Japan’s electricity generation capacity.
South Korea’s situation is almost the same as Japan’s, with 70.7% of its oil and 20.4% of its liquefied natural gas coming from the Middle East, totaling about 35% of the electricity generation capacity. The South Korean KOSPI index has recently fallen by over 12% and triggered a trading halt. President Lee Jae-myung announced the implementation of a fuel price ceiling, the first since the Asian financial crisis. Power grid instability may threaten the production capacity and yield of Samsung and SK Hynix semiconductor wafer fabs, thereby threatening the global AI infrastructure.
The actual vulnerability of the United States is political, not physical. Only about 2.5% of the Hormuz oil flow is destined for the United States, but with midterm elections approaching, oil prices are the clearest economic signal for American voters. Trump is simultaneously launching military actions against Iran and publicly committing to lowering oil prices. In the event of the Hormuz closure and over 60% of Gulf Arab oil production being halted, this commitment is physically impossible to achieve. Contradictions cannot last indefinitely, and in the future, Trump will either face reduced political support for military actions against Iran or lose credibility in economic management.
According to Bitget market data, this morning, Brent crude oil futures prices closed above $100 per barrel for the second consecutive trading day, reaching the highest level in over three years. U.S. crude oil futures closed near $99 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CME WTI Crude Oil futures “Crude Oil (CL)” closing price breaking through $100 in March has risen to 92%, and the probability of the closing price breaking through $120 has risen to 52%.
