BlockBeats News, March 17th, Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute published a market analysis stating that the Middle East situation has entered its third week of escalation, with Brent crude oil rising by 26% during the week, and the market has revised down its 2026 rate cut expectations to only once. Against this backdrop, the crypto market outperformed all major asset classes except for oil, with BTC rising during the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all saw declines.
On the macro front, core PCE hit 3.1% on an annualized basis, non-farm payrolls were -92,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and stagflation has become the benchmark scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all announce interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most concentrated macro impact event in recent months.
Wintermute stated that the current situation is more favorable than it has been for several months. The Coinbase premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional trading flows all point in the same direction. Nevertheless, caution is still required. For Bitcoin, $74,000 and $80,000 are key resistance levels to watch. Cycle analogies are also worth noting: historically, it takes about 400 days from peak to trough; and we are currently at less than 200 days. Due to structural reasons, including the proliferation of stablecoins and RWAs, the increasingly mature institutional infrastructure, and the absence of any fundamental issues, the depth of this bear market will be less than in previous bear market cycles. However, it is still necessary to maintain a realistic expectation of the speed of recovery.
