BlockBeats News, March 23rd, U.S. President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Truth Social over the weekend: “If Iran does not fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz without any threat within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants, starting with the largest one!” This “hardcore” statement quickly sent global oil prices soaring, with Brent crude oil surging at one point, fueling market panic and weighing on U.S. stocks. In response, Iran adopted a tough stance, stating that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water installations in the Middle East.
However, on the eve of the ultimatum deadline, Trump’s attitude took a dramatic 180-degree turn: he ordered a halt to the bombing of Iran’s power plants and declared a 5-day temporary ceasefire to allow for negotiations.
This “tough first, then soft” maneuver instantly led to a market reversal, with oil prices falling and stocks rebounding. Investors familiar with Trump’s style have long since summarized this pattern as the “TACO Trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out). Back during the 2025 tariff war, this abbreviation was already popular on Wall Street: Trump often starts with tough talk to create panic, driving down asset prices, and then “backs out” or postpones, leading to a rapid market rebound and profits. The Iran incident is seen as the latest version of TACO: first applying maximum pressure, causing a surge in oil prices/panic assets, then quickly softening, triggering short-covering and a rebound in risk assets.
Some analysts point out that this “high open, low close” trading tactic has become one of Trump’s signature styles in his second term, especially when dealing with geopolitics and simultaneous trade negotiations. Currently, the U.S.-Iran war has entered its 4th week, the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully reopened, there are clear signs of ground troop mobilization, but whether Trump’s “halt to bombing + 5-day ceasefire” is just another round of TACO or a genuine shift towards diplomatic resolution remains to be seen in the next 48 hours.
