BlockBeats News, April 6th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, the market’s expectation of a US-Iran ceasefire has been steadily increasing since yesterday. The probability of a ceasefire by the end of this month has risen from 18% to 28%, by the end of May from 34% to 42%, and a ceasefire by the end of June has become a high-probability event, with a likelihood of 53%.
The rise in ceasefire expectations is mainly driven by Trump’s deadline for Iran to come to the table for negotiations. Currently, Trump has set a deadline for negotiations at “Tuesday night 8 pm EDT” (Wednesday morning 8 am Beijing time). In addition, several related news items have boosted ceasefire expectations. Sources revealed that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could ultimately lead to a permanent end to the war. Iran also held talks with Oman on Saturday to discuss various proposals to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
