BlockBeats News, April 12th, according to Forbes report, after 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Pence stated that no agreement was reached as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if the negotiations failed, there would be a “total destruction” of Iran. The Iran conflict has caused volatility in the crypto market for weeks, compounded by the tariff turmoil, with Bitcoin falling below $70,000 earlier this month. Prior to the start of the negotiations, crypto analysts stated: if an agreement is reached, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $80,000; if the negotiations collapse, it may fall to $65,000.
On the bullish side, on-chain wallet data shows that the largest Bitcoin whale has been continuously buying during the most intense geopolitical turmoil, rather than selling. The logic behind this is: if the conflict further escalates leading to a disruption in Persian Gulf oil supply, causing oil prices to rise, inflation to rebound, and the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, in this context, scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold often perform well. On the bearish side, gold trader and long-time Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict intensifies, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted a “collapse” of Bitcoin, stating that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in times of war, and further suggested that insiders in the administration may be profiting from the news volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his “total destruction” threat, the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly be sold off simultaneously.
Regarding future developments, Pence remained firm in a press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Iranian Parliament Speaker demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of frozen assets as prerequisites for engaging in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the key in the next 72 hours is twofold: whether the ceasefire agreement can hold and whether Trump will escalate the conflict. There are still whale wallets continuing to buy at the current price, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on the situation stabilizing.
