BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours. The risk sentiment was boosted by news of a US-Iran ceasefire negotiation, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high on Thursday. Former President Trump stated that the prospect of a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran “looks very optimistic,” claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not confirmed these concessions.
Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price movement. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria commented: “The extremely negative funding rate indicates that the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may face forced liquidation, further accelerating the price increase.” He predicted that if the short base is squeezed out, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offered another perspective: Bitcoin’s “True Market Mean” (TMM) shows that the average holding cost of active holders is currently above the current price, putting holders at an unrealized loss. Since 2016, a sustained drop below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin’s most severe bearish cycles, including the bear markets from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drawdown of 57% lasting 282 days) and the post-Luna and FTX crash downturn from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drawdown of 56% lasting 339 days).
Analysts point out that these two assessments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the heavily negative funding rate and the structural pressure of active holders being at an unrealized loss can coexist. The former may trigger a sharp rise, but could ultimately be absorbed by the latter selling off. The future direction may depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire can continue after the deadline next week.
