BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to CoinDesk, Glassnode’s Bitcoin on-chain indicator RHODL Ratio is currently at 4.5, the third-highest level on record, sending a signal more in line with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.
The RHODL Ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding from 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding from 1 day to 3 months). An increasing ratio usually reflects a lengthening of the chip-holding period and a reduction in speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers – a dynamic seen after sharp pullbacks in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% Bitcoin price drop over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, consolidating wealth among long-term holders.
Historically, the RHODL Ratio has been higher than the current level only twice: in 2015 (Ratio at 5) and in 2022 (Ratio at 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, indicating that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to drive the ratio to higher levels, a near-complete exhaustion of short-term holder activity is usually required, and this condition is not yet evident – Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25% from the February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also hit an all-time high.
Overall, this indicator shows that the current market conditions are more indicative of an in-cycle adjustment rather than a cycle top, with long-term holders reasserting dominance in the market or signaling that a phase bottom is nearing.
