BlockBeats News, April 17th, the price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed $76,000 before falling back, continuing this week’s volatile trend. The previous approximately 10% surge driven by the US-Iran ceasefire news is gradually dissipating, and the market is shifting from emotion-driven to validating signals of actual economic recovery.
According to institutional views, a mere ceasefire is no longer sufficient to support further upside in risk assets. Investors are more focused on tangible progress such as energy supply restoration, reduction of the oil risk premium, and decreasing inflation. The current key variable still lies in the recovery of oil transport in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for approximately 20% of global oil transportation before the conflict.
In the energy market, WTI crude oil prices have fallen to around $87.5, while Brent crude remains near $90, indicating a cautious attitude towards supply recovery in the market.
In derivative data, the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to decline, suggesting that the market expects more defined macro progress in the short term. Meanwhile, open interest of Solana and DOGE futures has reached multi-week highs, indicating increased leverage demand that may amplify price volatility risks.
Technically, Bitcoin has formed a potential “double top” structure near $76,000. If it falls below the $73,300 neckline, it could further drop to $70,000. If it effectively breaks above $76,000, it may open up upside potential to $88,000.
Overall, the current market is still in a phase of “partial recovery,” with improving risk appetite but not yet fully confirmed. Subsequently, close attention is needed on energy supply recovery and macroeconomic data changes.
