After the ADP data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December decreased slightly to 88.8%.

BlockBeats News, December 3rd, according to CME’s “FedWatch” data, after today’s ADP data was released, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is 88.8% (down from 89.2% before the announcement), while the probability of rates staying unchanged is 11.2%.

The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until January is 29.5%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 63%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 7.8%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates for the Fed are December 10th and January 28th, 2026.