BlockBeats News, March 24th, according to Cointelegraph, after Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose by 4%, oil prices subsequently fell by 14% to $85 per barrel of WTI, and the S&P 500 index rose by 3%. However, Bitcoin derivative data continued to send out skeptical signals, with the market lacking confidence in the $68,000 support level.
On the futures market side, the Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium reported 2% on Monday, below the 4% to 8% range usually corresponding to a longer settlement period under neutral conditions, indicating insufficient long leverage demand. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though the price briefly rebounded to near $76,000.
On the options market side, the 80,000 US dollar call option expiring on April 24th on the Deribit trading platform was priced at 0.017 BTC (about $1,207), with a 31-day expiration and 48% implied volatility. The market priced the probability of Bitcoin rising to $80,000 during this period at only 20%. Such a low expectation of a 13% rise within the month is rare in the typically optimistic crypto market.
The Fed’s pause in interest rate cuts has made it difficult for investors to exit fixed-income positions, and traders are likely to remain cautious until oil falls back to $75 or below. Unless additional catalysts emerge, the likelihood of Bitcoin traders switching to a bullish stance is low, especially against the backdrop of ongoing lack of conviction in on-chain data and derivative indicators.
