BlockBeats News, February 17th. Despite ETH’s cumulative decline of about 20% since February and briefly falling below the $2,000 psychological level, on-chain data and derivative structures indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.
On-chain data shows that in February, over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses, with the holdings of related addresses increasing from 22 million ETH in 2026 to 26.7 million ETH. At the same time, currently about 37.22 million ETH (over 30% of the circulating supply) is staked, leading to a continuous shrinking of the circulating supply. The network’s fundamentals have also significantly improved, with weekly transaction volume hitting a historic high of 17.3 million and the median Gas fee dropping to $0.008, a decrease of about 3,000 times from the peak in 2021.
Technically, on the 4-hour ETH chart, a potential “Adam and Eve” double bottom reversal pattern may be forming. If the price effectively breaks above the $2,150 neckline, the theoretical target range points to $2,473–2,634. If the recent swing low structure is breached, $1,909 is a key short-term liquidity level.
On the derivatives front, the size of ETH’s open interest has dropped to $11.2 billion, significantly down from the peak of $30 billion in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains relatively high at 0.7. Data shows that about 73% of accounts are in a long position; the liquidation heat map indicates that there is significant short liquidation pressure above $2,200, amounting to over $2 billion, while long liquidation size near $1,800 is around $1 billion, suggesting a higher risk of a short squeeze to the upside.
Analysts believe that if ETH can successfully break above $2,150, it may open up short-term upside potential with a target around the $2,500 level.
