BlockBeats News, April 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that the “Bitcoin Exchange Position Index is a comprehensive indicator measuring the long/short aggressiveness in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual open position direction of futures market participants. The index’s 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17th when the Bitcoin price was $73,925, and has since been continuously falling, now dropping to -3.1. This reflects the continued accumulation of short positions. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving down in sync with the market price, further confirming the weakening market structure.
The Liquidation Oscillation Index rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has been steadily rising, reaching 18.6% today. This indicates that the market is continually experiencing forced liquidations on the long side, not allowing the structure to recover. The red bars, indicative of short liquidation dominance, have been absent since October 2025. As long as the 30-day Moving Average (30DMA) remains high and notable red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. A downward reversal of the 30DMA would be the first signal of liquidation balance restoration.
The synchronous reversal of the two indicators mutually reinforces each other. Bitcoin’s price has dropped by about 11% from its peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation to support a sustained reversal: shorts are dominant, longs continue to be liquidated, and short squeeze rallies are almost non-existent. Current operational stance: risk avoidance. The primary downside risk is: if the liquidation pressure persists and the SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure on the Bitcoin price breaking below $66,000 will intensify.”
