BlockBeats News, March 3rd. Recently, the downward momentum of Bitcoin has weakened, but a structural reversal signal has not yet appeared, and it is still within the bear market framework. Bitcoin did not accelerate its decline due to risk-off sentiment-related bearish news, indicating that the downward pressure may be easing. The price has now returned above the 20-day moving average (about $68,500), the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, potentially creating conditions for range expansion. The $62,500 level has been tested three times without being broken, seen as a key support level. At the same time, the RSI and Stochastic RSI are showing bullish divergences, indicating a stabilization of momentum.
Analysis believes that the market is experiencing “tactical improvement,” but a trend reversal has not been confirmed. Current volatility compression, increased ETF inflows, and the disappearance of Coinbase discounts do not align with the typical characteristics of a “new round of accelerated decline.” However, the overall asset allocation model still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market environment, and any long exposure should be seen as a tactical operation.
In the derivatives market, researchers point out that the previous deep negative funding rates led to a perpetual contract short crowding, triggering a typical “short squeeze,” driving the price to rebound quickly from the $63,000 low, alleviating short-term selling pressure. However, analysts also emphasize that structural fund inflows are still lacking, macro catalysts are limited, and the downward trend since the historical peak has not been broken.
Overall, the market sentiment has shifted from previous panic selling to relatively restrained, and the short term may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium-term trend is still to be confirmed.
