BlockBeats News, April 3rd. The market’s core contradiction has shifted further from simply war risk to a structural deadlock of “intractable inflation + unshifting policy.” There are no signs of relief on the energy front, with Russian exports damaged, OPEC+ still potentially increasing output, the U.S. not discussing tapering, and the continued high uncertainty of passage through the Hormuz Strait, keeping oil and diesel prices high. At the same time, steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs and potential drug tariffs are expanding, indicating that cost pressures are shifting from energy to a broader manufacturing and consumption system, with global supply chain pressures not easing but instead continuing to spread.
On the policy front, it has further confirmed that liquidity cannot provide support. Core Fed officials have explicitly leaned towards standing pat and adjusting liquidity structure through regulatory tools rather than rate cuts. The IMF more directly pointed out that there is almost no room for rate cuts in the next year, meaning that the market’s previous expectations of policy easing have been systematically revised. With energy driving inflation and employment not deteriorating significantly yet, monetary policy is locked in a restrictive range, and asset valuations lack the conditions for re-expansion.
In this structure, fund behavior continues to shift towards conservatism and short-termism. Changes in gold reserves and the diverging fundamentals of tech and traditional industries are observed. BTC remains in a passive pricing state, with liquidity pressure around the 69,400 range above, unable to effectively break through, indicating insufficient buying momentum. Near 65,500 below, liquidity continues to accumulate, and if macro pressures further intensify, this area may still become a key liquidity release point.
Overall, the market has entered a triple-constraint environment of “high inflation expectations + constrained policy + spreading war.” Liquidity cannot ease, the supply chain remains disrupted, and geopolitical risks lack exits, causing price fluctuations to more reflect fund redistribution. In the short term, the market will continue to be in an unstable equilibrium.
