BlockBeats News, October 23. The Federal Reserve has once again been hit. Due to the ongoing government shutdown causing a disruption in data reporting, even the long-time collaborator ADP has now ceased providing high-frequency employment data to the Fed, leaving the decision-makers facing an unprecedented “data void” before the October 28-29 meeting. It is reported that Powell personally tried to salvage data sharing, but to no avail. This means that the Fed will evaluate policy in the absence of real-time labor market data, significantly increasing the risk of decision-making errors.
On a macro level, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, approaching the longest record in history. Oxford Economics warns that if the deadlock continues into mid-November, it may overlap with the holiday season, causing a collapse in consumer confidence and triggering “lasting trauma.” The market is starting to bet that the Fed may end balance sheet reduction early, or even be forced to make a significant interest rate cut in December to address potential recession risks. U.S. bond yields have fallen, the dollar index is volatile, and market deleveraging sentiment is rising.
Part of the crypto market liquidation heat map observation shows that BTC has formed a dense liquidation zone above $114,000, with strong support buy orders in the range of $105,000 to $106,000 below. Macro uncertainty coupled with a contraction in dollar liquidity has led to a rise in short-term risk-off sentiment, with the risk of volatility expansion.
Bitunix Analyst View: The Fed’s data breakdown means reduced policy transparency and distorted market signals. When decision-making is based on distorted data, funds are more likely to rely on real-time market prices as the “sole reliable indicator,” which instead gives a relative advantage to the crypto market’s liquidity pricing mechanism. In the long term, data sovereignty and information transparency will become a new battleground for currency trust.
