BlockBeats News, December 16th: The US November Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released today. The market generally expects a modest addition of only about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.4%–4.5%, indicating a weak overall trend. FOREX.com points out that any result below expectations could potentially advance market pricing for the next Fed rate cut; MUFG also warns that if employment and the unemployment rate deteriorate simultaneously, the selling pressure on the US dollar may continue until the end of the year.
Of particular note is that both this Non-Farm Payrolls report and the subsequent CPI are considered “incomplete data.” Due to the government shutdown, historical unemployment data for October is missing, some components of the CPI cannot be collected, the household survey weight for November has been forcibly adjusted, and the authorities have acknowledged a high short-term data variance. This means that the credibility of individual figures has decreased, and the market will be more inclined to trade based on “policy direction expectations” and “changes in risk sentiment” rather than the precise employment increment itself.
From a cryptocurrency market perspective, the combination of a weak Non-Farm Payrolls report and data distortion has a dual impact on risk assets: on one hand, an early rate cut expectation is beneficial for liquidity imagination, providing medium-term support for assets like BTC; on the other hand, increased data uncertainty could trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in interest rates, the US dollar, and the cryptocurrency market, making leveraged funds more susceptible to liquidation.
Bitunix Analyst: During the “low credibility macro data” phase, the core of the market game is not whether the Non-Farm Payrolls report is good or bad, but whether it is sufficient to change the Fed’s policy narrative. The cryptocurrency market needs to be vigilant against liquidity sweeping actions and high-volatility markets before and after events, focusing on whether funds are using macro uncertainty to deleverage and reprice.
