BlockBeats News, November 18th: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly stated his support for another 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting. The rationale focuses on the ongoing weakness in the labor market and concerns about pressure on mid- to low-tier consumers. Waller referred to this as a “risk management rate cut,” believing that in a situation where official data is limited, it is better to provide insurance in advance to prevent rapid deterioration in employment. Meanwhile, the hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have not diminished, and a divided vote count creates uncertainty for the next decision. Whether to maintain the interest rate or cut it again could result in at least three dissenting votes. Policy expectations are no longer one-way, and the market needs to hedge between “rate cut possibility” and “increasing policy divergence.”
Amid this policy fog, the crypto market has shown significant pressure. The fear index is currently at 12, with a 51% surge in trading volume in the past 24 hours, leading to a dramatic market impact. The total amount of liquidations in derivatives in the past 24 hours reached $9.1157 billion, with long positions at $6.3131 billion and short positions at $2.8023 billion. On-chain data and ETF flows also demonstrate insufficient resilience, with profit-taking selling pressure and continued ETF fund outflows, causing a rapid price reaction driven by a liquidity gap.
Bitunix Analyst View: Waller’s dovish signal briefly boosted risk asset expectations in the early stages of the news cycle, but in a data vacuum and amid escalating FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) divergence, it will only amplify bidirectional volatility. We are monitoring three potential event-driven price paths: if ETF outflows stop and whales step in to buy in the $85,000 to $90,000 range, BTC is likely to bounce back to $100,000; if cascading liquidations in derivatives and more long-term holders accelerate selling, breaking below $85,000 to $88,000 will quickly guide the price down to the deep liquidity zone of $75,000 to $77,000. Key short-term observations: 1) FOMC voting dynamics and Waller’s subsequent comments; 2) daily ETF net flows and the frequency of cash-outs from large wallets; 3) PUT/OI (put options open interest) and synchronized changes in implied volatility—if all three deteriorate in the same direction, the market will shift from structural repricing to accelerated decline.
