BlockBeats News, March 19th, the author of the “Doomsday Report,” Citrini Research, made a statement regarding the recent market situation, expressing a real inability to see the possibility of the stock market not continuing to decline in the short term.
The market has been so eagerly wishing for “good news” that people have started to fabricate it themselves, forgetting that in actual warfare, both sides must agree to end it (or one side must surrender). They will eventually realize this.
The Fed’s rate cut cycle is being fully absorbed by the market. Two weeks ago, the SOFR Z7 (Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures) was 75 basis points lower than in March 2026. It has now dropped to 25 basis points, and the IOR (Interest on Reserves) is consistently higher than the two-year yield (which means reserve managers do not expect the rate cut cycle to continue, so they are not buying during the decline). If the non-farm payroll data is strong, it will devastate the rate market (at a time when financing is becoming increasingly critical for global mega-corporations); and if the data is weak, I believe the stock market will not react positively.
All of this is happening at a time when AI may not yet be convincing enough for companies to replace workers with machines while business continues as usual, but certainly enough for companies to try using it to fill the positions that had to be cut due to economic pressures, and they may find that they no longer need to rehire for those positions.
Seeing some bearish scenarios and then dismissively saying “it has already been absorbed by the market” is one thing, which has usually been a good strategy in the past (most years typically see a 10-15% drawdown), but one must consider that the S&P 500 index is currently only down about 5% from its all-time high.
