BlockBeats News, March 20th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe analyzed that the current macro variables’ impact logic on the crypto market has transitioned from “loose expectation driving risk appetite” to “prolonged high interest rates + energy shock driving up tail risk of inflation”. Although the Fed has maintained its median forecast of one interest rate cut within the year, Powell’s core message was very clear: if inflation does not show a substantial decline, further rate cuts should not be expected. Short-term U.S. Treasury bond yields subsequently rose, indicating that the market is correcting overly optimistic rate cut expectations. For the crypto market, high Beta altcoins, AI concept coins, and purely narrative-driven assets will be more easily impacted.
At the same time, the Middle East situation has pushed up oil prices, causing the “second round of inflation” risk to resurface. Although the Bank of Japan remains on hold, the future direction of interest rate hikes has not changed. In the coming weeks, attention needs to be paid to two major variables: whether U.S. inflation and job data strengthen the expectation of “prolonged high interest rates”, and whether the Bank of Japan will signal a rate hike around April. If both resonate with a hawkish tone, the crypto market will most likely still be in a phase of “high volatility, major restructuring, low Beta”.
From a market observation perspective, the current environment may be more favorable for a defensively stronger allocation strategy. BTC embodies both liquidity, market consensus, and partial hedging attributes in macro uncertainty, making its relative performance worth noting; ETH’s trend relies more on on-chain activity, ETF funds, and risk appetite recovery factors; while most altcoins face some valuation compression pressure. Overall, the market is transitioning from “loose expectation” to a new environment of “readjusting to restrictive interest rates and geopolitical shocks”, where the short-term theme may not be a comprehensive risk expansion, but rather a repricing window awaiting macro paths to clarify.
