BlockBeats News, November 17th. Chloe, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher, pointed out in her latest analysis that after the end of the U.S. government shutdown, multiple delayed economic data will soon be released in a concentrated manner. The market is concerned that this will weaken the basis for a rate cut in December. Several Federal Reserve voting members have also signaled a “wait-and-see” stance, significantly cooling down the rate cut expectations. Against the background of rate reassessment and liquidity tightening, the risk appetite for crypto assets continues to decline.
Bitcoin recently dropped to $95,885, with the overall market value retracting over $1 trillion since October. HTX Research stated that high real interest rates, near depletion of reverse repo balances, and elevated Treasury cash levels continue to create a tight liquidity environment. Option data shows investors increasing defensive positions. On Deribit, the open interest of high-strike put options is significant, with the largest pain point around $104,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.61. Long-term holders have also sold over 810,000 bitcoins during the pullback.
HTX DeepThink believes that future speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the FOMC minutes will guide expectations. In the short term, amid weakened rate cut expectations and tight liquidity effects, Bitcoin may remain in the $95,000 to $100,000 range. The medium to long-term trend still depends on fiscal spending, regulatory developments, and liquidity release.
