BlockBeats News, December 8th, HTX DeepThink columnist, HTX Research researcher Chloe analyzed that as the year end approaches, the global macro environment has experienced increased volatility due to the divergence in US and Japanese policies, putting pressure on global risk assets including Bitcoin.
Core Drivers and Contradictory Signals:
US Policy Uncertainty: Despite inflation data showing a slowdown and the market’s rate cut expectations rising, news from the Trump camp about Kevin Hassett possibly taking over as the Federal Reserve Chair has led to an increase in bond yields.
Japanese Policy Shift: The Nikkei reported that Bank of Japan officials are inclined to raise the policy rate to 0.75% at the December 19th meeting (the highest level since 1995), intensifying the divergence in US and Japanese policies.
Bitcoin Market Performance:
Institutional Defense: ETF fund flows are negative, and open interest in futures is decreasing, indicating that institutions are in a defensive position.
Option Contradictions: The market’s implied volatility (IV) has fallen across the board (short-term IV dropping from 57% to 48%), indicating a weakening of volatility expectations. However, Amberdata’s Risk Reversal Index still shows a negative value (around -4.9), suggesting that investors still prefer to hedge downside risk through put options.
The report emphasizes that large funds have lowered their year-end price target range to $100,000 to $118,000, while $80,000 to $82,000 is widely regarded as Bitcoin’s key support range.
