BlockBeats News, November 10th. HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe pointed out that the U.S. government shutdown has been going on for over a month. With no substantial progress in the budget negotiations, official economic data is missing, and the market can only rely on private sector indicators to assess the economic trend. ADP data shows that in October, private sector job growth slowed to 42,000, with wage growth remaining at 4.5%, indicating a significant cooling of the labor market. The strengthening U.S. dollar caused gold to drop by about 1.5% for the week, with the market’s expectation of a rate cut in December dropping to around 71%.
On-chain data shows that after whales reduced their holdings at a high level, they reaccumulated at a lower level, with institutional buying continuing through OTC. Stablecoin inflows amounted to $2.8 billion, but the growth rate slowed, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude among investors.
The Federal Reserve announced it would end its balance sheet reduction (QT) starting in December and reinvest MBS funds into short-term Treasuries, signaling increased liquidity. Market expectations suggest that if the government shutdown ends and economic data recovers, the Fed may consider restarting quantitative easing (QE) early next year to address the risks of weak U.S. bond demand and high yields. Analysts believe that the subsequent policy direction will depend on the outcome of the fiscal negotiations and the December FOMC meeting.
