BlockBeats News, December 5th, despite the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin, JPMorgan Chase still upholds its “Bitcoin vs. Gold Adjusted by Volatility” model, which shows a theoretical target price for Bitcoin in the next 6 to 12 months of around $170,000.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out in its Wednesday report that Strategy remains a key driver for Bitcoin, with the market closely watching its corporate value-to-Bitcoin holding value ratio (mNAV). This ratio is currently around 1.13, and if it falls below 1.0, it will be seen as a risk signal for “forced selling” of coins. Currently, mNAV is still above 1.0, which is reassuring. Analysts noted that the company holds $1.4 billion in reserve funds, which can serve as a buffer without having to sell Bitcoin. They also emphasized that the MSCI’s index decision on January 15th will act as an “asymmetric catalyst”:
If excluded, most of the negative news has already been reflected in the sharp decline since October 10th;
If the outcome is positive, it could lead to a sharp rebound in the stock price.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has plummeted from a historical high of over $120,000 to as low as $82,000. JPMorgan Chase has revised down the estimated production cost of Bitcoin from $94,000 to $90,000, as a result of the recent drop in hash rate and mining difficulty.
Analysts pointed out that if the Bitcoin price remains below the production cost for a long time, it could trigger a “self-reinforcing cycle”: marginal miners exit → difficulty decreases → further reduction in production cost—similar to the situation in 2018. The report added that the deleveraging of perpetual contracts since October 10th has essentially ended.
