BlockBeats News, December 8th. According to PolyBeats, the prediction market “Will Trump Declassify UFO Files by 2025?” surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of the imminent disclosure of UFO information. The establishment of this market is based on Trump’s explicit commitment during the 2024 election campaign to “declassify everything,” as well as the mandatory declassification requirement for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Trading data shows that the rise in this probability began with the trader ster. He continuously bought “Yes” shares from the market’s inception, and yesterday’s surge in probability was also driven by his market-buy orders when liquidity was low, pushing up the probability. A review of his trading history reveals that his operations are more in line with a “buy low, sell high” trading pattern rather than insider trading.
On the other side of ster, there are 6 accounts whose actions in the 12 hours post-probability-increase are more noteworthy. They collectively bought over 20,000 “No” shares at an average price of less than $0.2, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files by 2025. These accounts share a common trait: this is their only position on Polymarket.
These six accounts, with such consistent timing, pricing, and position size, conducting simultaneous operations, have introduced another possible scenario for the change in this market: these accounts utilized AARO’s website update as a “smokescreen,” either intentionally or passively driving up the probability of “Yes,” causing the “No” price to plummet to a minimum, allowing them to establish positions at a low cost. These traders are well aware that AARO’s website updates are insufficient to meet the market’s stringent settlement criteria; therefore, through this reverse arbitrage based on information asymmetry, they are betting that the market will ultimately settle with a “No.”
