BlockBeats News, March 13, according to Bitget market data, the oil price experienced a roller-coaster trend early this morning, with Brent crude oil once approaching $100 per barrel, WTI crude oil close to $98 per barrel, and now falling back to $97.4 and $95.1 per barrel, respectively. As early as this Monday, the price of Brent crude oil surged to nearly $100 per barrel, then sharply fell below $100 per barrel.
Previously, the U.S. Treasury Department was considering measures to lower oil prices, including intervening in the futures market. The Trump administration has temporarily allowed countries to purchase Russian crude oil stranded at sea, urgently seeking to stabilize the global energy market. At the same time, it announced on Wednesday to release oil from the strategic reserves to prevent an oil price shock. The head of the CME Group warned the Trump administration that attempting to lower oil prices by intervening in the derivatives market during a war with Iran could trigger an “epic disaster.” However, the wild fluctuations in oil prices have led the market to speculate that the U.S. Treasury Department may have intervened in the futures market, although the U.S. Treasury Department has refused to comment on this speculation.
Currently, the market believes that oil prices could rise to $200, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mujtaba issued his first statement this morning, stating that he will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and he plans to use this strategic waterway, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply must pass, as a bargaining chip against the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bennett revealed that the U.S. Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but this may not be put into practice by the end of the month.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “the Strait of Hormuz reopening for navigation before April 30th” is 46%, the probability of “oil price surpassing $120 by the end of the month” is 41%, and the probability of “oil price surpassing $200 by the end of the month” is 4%.
