BlockBeats News, March 18th, QCP Capital posted on its official channel stating that Bitcoin was hovering around $74,000, holding the range formed after the impact but lacking upward momentum, making it difficult to break through recent highs. On-chain fund flows indicate dip buying at the lower end of the range, but spot volume remains light. The entire crypto complex is still under pressure, but compared to the drawdown of other macro-sensitive risk assets, the losses are relatively manageable.
The options market remains stable but defensive. The 30-day implied volatility remains steady around 50%, still higher than realized volatility, maintaining a positive carry and favoring sellers. The risk reversal indicator shows that put options are still more expensive than call options, with front-end skew negative, and the back-end curve still embedded with residual geopolitical premium.
This week welcomes a central bank super week, with the Fed concluding its March meeting on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BOJ, and BOE on Thursday. The rise in oil prices to around $100 complicates the rate-cutting path, as the market has significantly reduced its easing expectations. For the crypto market, the interest rate environment is no longer supportive.
In the current environment, Bitcoin is no longer purely trading as a high-beta risk asset. In the short term, the range is likely to be maintained until the policy path or geopolitical situation becomes clear.
