BlockBeats News, April 8th. QCP released a market view stating that, influenced by the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin rebounded above $71,000, but the ceasefire is conditional and has not led to a lasting resolution. The options market indicates that this round of increase is closer to an event-driven squeeze market, with the front-end BTC implied volatility decreasing but skew deepening, and strong demand for downside put options. The term structure remains in contango, showing that the market has not given up on hedging.
QCP believes that the current market caution is reasonable. The recent attack on Saudi energy infrastructure has highlighted that even with shipping resuming, the risk of turmoil persists. The macro situation remains complex. While there has been a rebound in U.S. employment data, key labor metrics are weakening, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance between softening economic growth and resurgent energy-driven inflation. This week’s Consumer Price Index will be the next key test.
