BlockBeats News, September 25th, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated in his latest podcast released yesterday that Bitcoin is now mimicking the ISM (Institute for Supply Management Index, i.e., the “business cycle”). The core idea is that Bitcoin is now following the ISM, and interest rates are also following the same beat.
In the 2021–22 fiscal year, the Treasury extended the weighted average maturity of the debt from 4 years to 5 years. Therefore, the entire cycle has been forcefully elongated by one year—the original “four-year cycle” has become a “five-year cycle.”
The model indicates that the ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity will likely peak in advance because the second derivative of ISM (the rate of change) will turn first. “Our speculation is that the real peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2.”
