BlockBeats News, April 6th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, the market’s expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire have been continuously rising since yesterday. The probability of a ceasefire by the end of this month has increased from 18% to 28%, by the end of May from 34% to 42%, and a ceasefire by the end of June has become a high-probability event, with a 53% chance.
The rising ceasefire expectations are mainly driven by Trump’s deadline for Iran to come to the table for talks. Currently, the deadline set by Trump for talks is “Tuesday night Eastern Time” (Wednesday morning Beijing Time). In addition, several related news pieces have boosted ceasefire expectations. Sources revealed that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could eventually lead to a permanent end to the war. Furthermore, Iran held talks with Oman on Saturday to discuss various solutions to ensure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
