According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently frequently raised expectations of US-Iran talks and claimed to have had contact with the Iranian side. Today, he once again stated that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, only to be swiftly rebuffed by the Iranian side. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is “firmly under its control” and that it “will not open up to the enemies of this country because of the ridiculous performance of the US president.”
Multiple prediction markets indicate that Trump’s recent verbal statements are no longer effective, including:
The probability of a “US-Iran ceasefire by the end of April” remains at 38%, still near recent lows, as the market does not expect a rapid ceasefire to make progress;
The probability of “the Strait of Hormuz being navigable by the end of April” has continuously decreased, now at 20%, also near recent lows, as the strait is firmly controlled by Iran and has become an economic warfare weapon against the US;
The probability of “US ground troops entering Iran by the end of the month” remains high at 55%, as the US military continues to deploy additional troops to the Middle East.
