BlockBeats News, March 29th, the news of the US military preparing for a ground operation against Iran has ignited global attention. Unlike the full-scale invasion of the 2003 Iraq War, the Pentagon this time has deployed the “Scimitar of Execution” tactic — no occupation of territory, no prolonged warfare, aiming directly at Iran’s oil lifeline, Kharg Island, attempting to replicate the glory of the 1991 Gulf War with a “few weeks’ swift victory.”
According to foreign media reports, the Pentagon is preparing for a limited ground operation lasting several weeks, rather than a full-scale occupying invasion. Currently, thousands of Marines, and the 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers have been deployed to the Middle East, with around 3,500 members of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Guam, heading straight to the core waters of the Persian Gulf.
The US military stated on the 26th that it is considering sending up to 10,000 ground troops, covering infantry and armored forces, with a total force size only one percent of the scale of the Iraq War, completely abandoning the operational model of a million-strong invading force from years past. The Pentagon’s strategic intent is very clear: abandoning the high-cost, uncontrollable-risk full-scale occupation and focusing instead on an “economic strangulation war.” Its core tactical objective is squarely aimed at Iran’s southwestern oil-producing region and the strategic chokepoint of the Hormuz Strait, targeting the core hub of Iran’s oil exports — Kharg Island. This island handles over 90% of Iran’s oil export tasks and can be said to be the lifeblood of Iran’s economy.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the US military entering Iran by the end of this month is 5%, and by the end of April is 64%.
