BlockBeats News, April 12th. CITIC Securities issued an analysis regarding the US-Iran negotiations, stating that from the US core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it will become the most crucial war achievement for the US and also the biggest “achievement” Trump can use to appease the domestic situation. This round of conflict has had a significantly negative impact on Trump’s midterm elections and he needs to disengage early. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and past US presidents have been unable to solve this issue, severely affecting US Middle East strategy. Compared to Iran’s “nuclear abandonment achievement” and its significant political propaganda effect, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration may be able to compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz.
From Iran’s core demands, this war has proven that the blockade of the strait and the threat to Middle East infrastructure are crucial balancing chips, even more destructive and flexible than nuclear weapons threats. Compared to the extremely high cost and uncontrollable scale of nuclear weapons, blockading the strait and targeting infrastructure only require low-cost drones to have a huge impact on the US and global economy, thus becoming Iran’s tool to balance against the US. Both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of large-scale infrastructure destruction, meaning that the probability of extreme war escalation is not high, and extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation are less likely.
