BlockBeats News, March 13th – A Forbes analysis pointed out that in the oil price shock environment triggered by geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin usually struggles to serve as a safe-haven asset in the short term. Historical data shows that whether it is a sharp drop or a breakout above $100 in oil prices, Bitcoin often experiences downward pressure, albeit at different rates of decline.
The report stated that a surge in oil prices often signifies rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to maintain high interest rates, thereby weakening the attractiveness of risk assets including Bitcoin. Currently, against the backdrop of escalated Iran conflict, international oil prices have once again risen above $100, while Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, down about 45% from its historical high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
The analysis suggests that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, Bitcoin could further decline by 15% to 25%, with the price range potentially falling to $50,000 to $58,000; if the conflict escalates and drives oil prices to $130–140, Bitcoin could retreat to the $40,000–$45,000 range.
However, the report also noted that based on historical cycles, macro crises often eventually come with fiscal stimulus and liquidity expansion. Once oil prices fall and monetary policy shifts towards easing, Bitcoin usually experiences a larger-scale rebound. If oil prices fall below $80 within a few months, Bitcoin is expected to start recovering by the end of 2026 and subsequently challenge the $100,000 level in the following cycle.
