BlockBeats News, March 31st, Market maker Wintermute’s latest market weekly report pointed out that the Bitcoin perpetual contract to spot volume ratio has increased to 15 times, while funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, indicating that the market leverage is high but with a lack of directional consensus. The current structure is closer to a “coiled spring,” potentially brewing a larger unidirectional movement.
Wintermute believes that if there is substantive progress in geopolitical easing and oil prices fall to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to $70,000 to $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, Bitcoin prices could drop to just over $60,000, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could drop to the mid-$50,000 range.
On a more macro level, the direction is not important here; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage ratio in the futures contract is high, fund flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever, and volatility is also decreasing. Regardless of which direction the catalyst ultimately develops, the market structure indicates that the resulting price movement will far exceed the levels reflected in the current spot, futures, and options prices.
